Preseason Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#127
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.9#51
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#143
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#110
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 13.8% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.9% 7.0% 1.6%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 12.1
.500 or above 52.5% 58.1% 30.5%
.500 or above in Conference 61.0% 64.4% 47.8%
Conference Champion 8.3% 9.5% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 4.1% 7.9%
First Four2.4% 2.7% 1.2%
First Round10.6% 12.2% 4.3%
Second Round3.2% 3.9% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 79.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 2.10.1 - 2.1
Quad 1b0.4 - 1.80.5 - 3.9
Quad 21.9 - 3.92.4 - 7.8
Quad 36.0 - 5.28.4 - 13.0
Quad 47.4 - 2.215.8 - 15.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 218   Gardner-Webb W 76-70 80%    
  Nov 09, 2018 240   Hampton W 82-75 82%    
  Nov 12, 2018 205   Bowling Green W 79-74 78%    
  Nov 19, 2018 72   Temple L 71-76 34%    
  Nov 20, 2018 31   St. John's L 72-81 22%    
  Nov 24, 2018 156   Hofstra W 79-77 67%    
  Nov 28, 2018 102   @ Old Dominion L 67-68 35%    
  Dec 01, 2018 133   Iona W 80-79 60%    
  Dec 05, 2018 26   @ Texas L 65-75 14%    
  Dec 09, 2018 2   @ Virginia L 55-71 5%    
  Dec 15, 2018 112   College of Charleston L 69-70 57%    
  Dec 22, 2018 81   Wichita St. L 74-77 47%    
  Dec 30, 2018 110   Rider L 81-82 57%    
  Jan 05, 2019 267   @ Fordham W 73-64 68%    
  Jan 09, 2019 166   La Salle W 77-74 69%    
  Jan 12, 2019 88   @ Davidson L 70-73 31%    
  Jan 16, 2019 107   Dayton L 73-74 56%    
  Jan 19, 2019 154   Massachusetts W 75-73 67%    
  Jan 23, 2019 103   @ Rhode Island L 73-74 36%    
  Jan 26, 2019 182   @ Duquesne W 75-71 52%    
  Feb 02, 2019 129   George Mason W 76-75 59%    
  Feb 06, 2019 208   @ George Washington W 74-68 57%    
  Feb 09, 2019 119   @ St. Bonaventure L 74-75 38%    
  Feb 13, 2019 130   Richmond W 76-75 60%    
  Feb 16, 2019 107   @ Dayton L 73-74 37%    
  Feb 19, 2019 103   Rhode Island L 73-74 56%    
  Feb 23, 2019 208   George Washington W 74-68 75%    
  Feb 26, 2019 71   Saint Louis L 66-71 44%    
  Mar 02, 2019 130   @ Richmond W 76-75 41%    
  Mar 05, 2019 129   @ George Mason W 76-75 40%    
  Mar 08, 2019 106   Saint Joseph's L 75-76 55%    
Projected Record 15.8 - 15.2 9.4 - 8.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.4 2.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 8.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.4 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.0 2.6 0.6 0.1 9.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.8 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 4.1 1.0 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.2 1.8 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.7 2.7 0.5 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.5 1.0 0.1 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.3 0.2 6.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 1.4 0.2 5.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.3 3.5 5.3 6.9 9.2 10.1 11.4 11.3 10.1 9.1 7.8 5.5 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 95.9% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 92.5% 1.7    1.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 69.4% 2.2    1.5 0.7 0.1
14-4 43.5% 2.4    0.8 1.2 0.3 0.1
13-5 14.5% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.6 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 42.2% 57.8% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 92.7% 42.4% 50.3% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.4%
16-2 1.8% 79.6% 29.7% 50.0% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 71.0%
15-3 3.2% 59.5% 24.2% 35.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.3 46.6%
14-4 5.5% 42.7% 18.4% 24.2% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.2 29.7%
13-5 7.8% 24.4% 12.7% 11.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.9 13.3%
12-6 9.1% 15.7% 9.9% 5.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.6 6.4%
11-7 10.1% 8.8% 6.8% 2.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.2 2.2%
10-8 11.3% 4.7% 4.3% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.4%
9-9 11.4% 3.6% 3.4% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.0 0.3%
8-10 10.1% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0%
7-11 9.2% 1.6% 1.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.0
6-12 6.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
5-13 5.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.3
4-14 3.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.5
3-15 2.3% 2.3
2-16 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.0% 6.5% 5.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.5 2.7 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 88.0 5.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0